Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
